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5 minute read
A battle-tested forecasting framework for vendors, strategists, and anyone building technology roadmaps in uncertain times
As someone working at the intersection of workplace technology, market analysis, and strategy, I’ve come to rely on forecasting not just as a way to project numbers—but as a tool to understand how the market actually thinks. And for me, video conferencing devices have always offered a surprisingly clear signal.
These endpoints might not grab headlines like AI or cloud platforms, but they tell a deeper story. When organizations upgrade room systems, shift from BYOD to managed solutions, or standardize on a UC platform, it’s rarely about video alone. It’s about where budgets are headed, how IT priorities are evolving, and what the modern workplace is becoming.
For the past seven years, I’ve built and refined a forecast for this category. Over that time, I’ve developed a structured approach that helps me interpret not only what’s happening, but why. It’s grounded in a set of macro factors that act as my guideposts for assessing demand, identifying friction points, and understanding the story behind the spreadsheet.
For the 2025–2029 cycle, I’ve made two key changes. First, I’m sharing this framework publicly for the first time after using it privately in my subscriber research. Second, I’ve expanded the model from seven to nine macro factors. That change reflects the growing complexity of the market—where tariffs, sustainability mandates, and geopolitical risk are no longer background noise. They’ve moved into the foreground, shaping procurement decisions and product strategy alike.
Whether you work in hardware, software, infrastructure, or some combination of all three, I believe the way we approach macro modeling needs to evolve. The nine-factor structure I’ll share below is how I’ve approached that challenge.
The 9 Macro Factors Behind the Forecast
Forecasting is, at its core, about choosing what to pay attention to. Not every trend matters equally. And not every economic signal translates into tech decisions at the same speed or intensity.
That’s why I use a structured set of nine macro factors to guide my forecast for the video conferencing device market.
These aren’t abstract trends. They’re real-world levers I’ve seen shift enterprise priorities over the years. Each one is scored on a 0–5 scale to reflect its relative importance over the next five years. This weighting helps me prioritize what matters most in shaping demand.
Here’s how I’m using these factors in the current cycle:
| Factor | What This Factor Is | Weight |
| Post-Pandemic Work Trends | The shift to hybrid work as a permanent workplace model, influencing how meeting spaces are equipped. | 3 (Medium) |
| Economic Conditions | Inflation, interest rates, recession fears, and buyer-side pricing pressure from tariffs. | 5 (Very High) |
| Technological Advancements | Innovations in video, audio, AI, and integration that shape refresh behavior and product appeal. | 3 (Medium) |
| Corporate IT Spending and Refresh Cycles | The cadence of enterprise hardware replacement, driven by support timelines and lifecycle milestones. | 5 (Very High) |
| Market Saturation | Global and regional penetration of video-enabled rooms, which sets the ceiling and pace of new deployments. | 2 (Low) |
| Emerging Markets | Growth potential in underpenetrated regions where modernization is accelerating. | 4 (High) |
| UC Platform Standardization and Expansion | The consolidation on platforms like Teams or Zoom that drives consistent room enablement. | 3 (Medium) |
| Manufacturing and Supply Chain | Vendor-side production variability, tariffs on imports, and localized manufacturing shifts. | 2 (Low) |
| Sustainability Requirements | ESG mandates and environmental regulations that influence procurement decisions, especially in EMEA. | 1 (Very Low) |
Weights range from 0 to 5, with 5 being “very high importance” and 0 meaning “not currently impactful.”
In the next section, I’ll explain why each factor is weighted the way it is—based on real-world behaviors, regional variation, and product dynamics.
Applying Macro Thinking Pragmatically
If there’s one lesson I’ve learned through years of modeling, it’s that macro thinking is only helpful if it’s grounded in real impact. Saying "economic conditions are tough" doesn't help much when you're trying to figure out how many systems will ship in Q2.
That’s why I focus on applying macro thinking pragmatically. Strip out the buzzwords, identify what actually moves markets, and weigh it accordingly.
🟩 5 — Very High Weight: These Factors Move Markets
Economic Conditions
This is the heavy hitter. Inflation, interest rates, and recession risk directly constrain IT budgets. When CFOs tighten spending, collaboration tools are often deprioritized. And when tariffs raise prices, project scopes shrink or get delayed.
Why it’s a 5: It impacts demand immediately and visibly.
Corporate IT Spending and Refresh Cycles
This factor might seem quiet—until it isn’t. When OS support ends or certifications expire, refreshes become non-negotiable. Think: Windows 10 EOL, Android certification cutoffs, and aging BYOD hardware.
Why it’s a 5: These events drive real, time-sensitive purchase decisions.
🟨 3 — Medium Weight: Steady Influencers That Set the Pace
Post-Pandemic Work Trends
Hybrid work is no longer in debate. But how it’s implemented matters. Are offices built for high-frequency collaboration, or occasional drop-ins? This factor shapes the mix of deployments and the pace of room enablement.
Why it’s a 3: It defines strategy, but not the spend.
Technological Advancements
AI, better audio, touch interfaces—these features can spark interest and justify refreshes, but only when paired with budget cycles or broader IT changes.
Why it’s a 3: It adds urgency to an already-planned purchase, but rarely drives one on its own.
UC Platform Standardization and Expansion
When companies standardize on one UC platform, they often upgrade rooms to maintain a consistent experience. But the impact depends on broader initiatives like digital workplace rollouts.
Why it’s a 3: A strong tailwind—when conditions align.
🟦 2 — Low Weight: Slow-Moving but Real
Market Saturation
Globally, fewer than 15% of meeting rooms are video-enabled. But in mature markets, that number is higher, and growth is harder. Emerging markets have room to run.
Why it’s a 2: It limits ceiling over time, but not short-term demand.
Manufacturing and Supply Chain
This affects vendors more than buyers. Longer lead times and cost variability can delay deployments, but don’t usually cancel them. Buyers have adapted.
Why it’s a 2: It shifts timing more than it suppresses demand.
🟥 1 — Very Low Weight: Directionally Relevant, Not Yet Disruptive
Sustainability Requirements
This is growing in importance, particularly in EMEA, but today it's more of a tiebreaker than a decision driver. Still, it’s not safe to ignore—regulatory pressure is rising.
Why it’s a 1: It filters decisions, but rarely initiates them.
A Framework That Travels Well
Although this model was built for video conferencing devices, its value doesn’t stop there. Over time, I’ve realized these same macro factors can apply across a wide range of technology forecasting efforts.
Whether you’re modeling endpoint refreshes, infrastructure investments, or platform migrations, the same themes show up—just with different weightings. Budget cycles, platform decisions, regional maturity, and regulatory impact are relevant across the board.
Here’s how the nine video-specific factors map to more general forecasting lenses:
| Conferencing Devices Macro Factor |
General Forecasting Lens | How to Use It |
| Post-Pandemic Work Trends | Workforce Strategy / Office Footprint | Model how hybrid policies shape tech deployment timelines |
| Economic Conditions | IT Budget Sensitivity / Pricing Volatility | Adjust for inflation, tariffs, and macro-driven spending risk |
| Technological Advancements | Innovation Cycles / Feature-Driven Refresh | Tie refresh rates to platform and capability upgrades |
| Corporate IT Spending and Refresh Cycles | Lifecycle Management / Compliance-Driven Planning | Time demand spikes around OS and hardware end-of-life events |
| Market Saturation | Adoption Ceiling / Market Penetration | Forecast ceilings and regional pacing based on maturity |
| Emerging Markets | Regional Expansion Potential | Monitor localization and new market activation |
| UC Platform Standardization | Platform Consolidation and Ecosystem Integration | Map enablement trends to platform lock-in and IT governance |
| Manufacturing and Supply Chain | Supply Chain Risk and Lead Time Sensitivity | Build timing and margin flexibility into hardware-dependent models |
| Sustainability Requirements | ESG Influence on Procurement | Include sustainability as a filter in vendor scoring and procurement behavior |
This mapping isn't about turning every forecast into a macro thesis. It’s about knowing which levers matter, and how they shift when external conditions change. If you can build around those forces—and adjust when new ones emerge—you’ll be much better prepared for what comes next.
Closing Thoughts
Forecasting isn’t about predicting the future with certainty. It’s about creating a structured way to think through uncertainty—so we can make better decisions, ask smarter questions, and recognize meaningful signals when we see them.
Whether you’re modeling video endpoints, SaaS subscriptions, or something entirely new, I hope this framework gives you a practical lens to work with. If you've built something similar, challenged your own assumptions, or are wrestling with how to weigh these variables in your own space—I’d love to hear about it.
Thanks for reading.
